OCTA predicts not more than 1,000 Covid-19 cases in NCR by Feb. 14

The OCTA Research now sees a downtrend in the surge in Covid-19 infections and predicts the daily infection rate in Metro Manila to slow down to less than 1,000 infections by Valentine’s Day on February 14.

OCTA Research fellow, Dr. Guido David, said Friday at the Go Negosyo’s Booster to the Max Townhall, there is already a downward trajectory of cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) as average cases declined by 20 percent week-on-week.

The reproduction number in NCR was noted to have started its decline on January 3 when the government reverted Metro Manila to Alert Level 3. David predicts the NCR will have over 2,000 daily cases by end January from a peak of 8,000 a day.

“By Valentine’s Day, it could be at least 1,000 cases and by end February it would be around less than 500 cases,” he said, adding, however, that although conditions in Metro Manila are improving, easing the alert level “might not be advisable until NCR reaches moderate risk.” to sustain the noted rapid decline.

Covid-19 infections outside Metro Manila, however, have not yet peaked, and David said there is still an upward trajectory of cases outside the NCR mainly driven by the Omicron variant. He noted the increasing cases in Cebu City which have not reached its peak of less than 1,000 cases expected by the end of the month.

He said the estimated peak daily cases in Cebu City would be three times higher than the Delta surge peak. “but this would be a faster wave again compared to the Delta, so our friends from Cebu will just have to brace for this and then wait for the wave to pass by.”